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Macquarie: Raise the forecast of USD/JPY to 140 JPY by the end of 2025 from 125 JPY.CICC interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: the fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year. CICC issued a document saying that the tone of the Politburo in September will be continued, and this Politburo meeting will further inject confidence into the market, and there will be many new formulations in policy. From the perspective of policy objectives, the demand for growth is more clear, and the expression of "property market and stock market" is also very clear. From the policy direction, expanding domestic demand ranks first, and the tendency to boost consumption and improve people's livelihood is further highlighted. From the policy tone, monetary and fiscal policies are more active, and "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment" is put forward for the first time. In terms of specific policy prospects, we believe that the following aspects are worthy of attention: the intensity of fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year; The loose space of monetary policy may be opened through comprehensive policies, and the structural monetary policy may be significantly overweight; Expand domestic demand in an all-round way, and incremental measures may focus more on consumption; Further promote reform and opening up. Generally speaking, the policy mix is in line with what we judge as "tight credit, loose money and wide finance" in the second half of the financial cycle.In October, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, and the trend of steady improvement continued to consolidate. The General Administration of Market Supervision announced today (10th) that in October, 2024, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, up 0.47 points from September, and the steady improvement of corporate credit level continued to consolidate.

Five A-shares registered today, among which Longyan Group, Juyi Technology and China CITIC Bank have the strongest dividends. According to the statistics of the equity distribution plan of listed companies, five A-shares registered today. Among them, 5 shares are intended to pay dividends. In terms of dividends, date of record, where 5 stocks pay dividends, is December 10th. Longbai Group, Juyi Technology and China CITIC Bank have the strongest dividends, with dividends of 3 yuan, 2.2 yuan and 1.83 yuan for every 10 shares. In addition, there are 7 shares that have made dividend plans, among which Radio and Television Metrology, Cube Pharmaceutical and Hefei Hi-Tech have the strongest dividend plans, and every 10 shares will be distributed to 2.5 yuan, 2 yuan and 1 yuan respectively.CITIC Securities: The supply or trend of government bonds will increase, and the subsequent banking system will face certain undertaking pressure. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the supply or trend of government bonds will increase in the medium and long term, and the subsequent banking system will face certain undertaking pressure. Under the logic of debt conversion, the continuous issuance of replacement special bonds will reduce the capital occupation of the banking system, but it will also increase the pressure of interest margin on the asset side, which may have a greater impact on small and medium-sized rural commercial banks. In addition, banks undertake a large number of medium and long-term interest-rate bonds or put pressure on their liquidity indicators, but at present, all indicators of state-owned banks have a high margin of safety, and we think the overall impact may be more controllable. At the beginning of next year, we can focus on the influence of small and medium-sized banks' bond buying behavior, or form a certain bullish support for long-term bond interest rates.Soochow securities: Market sentiment is expected to boost allocation opportunities in pro-cyclical directions. The soochow securities Research Report pointed out that in the short term, policy easing is expected to further heat up, and market sentiment is expected to be boosted. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to allocation opportunities in pro-cyclical directions. Before and after the inflection point of previous economic cycles, due to the obvious increase of investors' attention to policies, market transactions at the end of the year often revolve around policy expectations. Compared with 2012, 2014 and 2022, with the gradual landing of macro boots at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market style may switch to the broader market in stages. In the short term, the market sentiment will be significantly boosted, and the pro-cyclical style is expected to usher in configuration opportunities.

Huatai Securities: The statement of the Politburo meeting on macro-policies generally exceeded market expectations. Huatai Securities said in reading the research report of the Politburo meeting in December that, on the whole, the statement of the Politburo meeting on macro-policies generally exceeded market expectations, and the stocks and debts all gave positive responses. The subsequent central bank RRR cut is expected to land soon, which is expected to form a certain emotional resonance. The next focus is on the more specific economic deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference for next year. Compared with the expected guidance, the market pays more attention to the actual scale, especially whether there are clearer signals in finance, inflation and exchange rate, and whether the broad credit can actually come. As far as debt is concerned, the short-term market inertia is still there, and the downward trend of interest rates has not wavered. However, the market quickly responded to the mid-term "good" and overdrawn the market next year. It is suggested to enhance operational flexibility, maintain long-term interest rate positions, stop chasing up, cash in when it is favorable to prevent profit impulse, and continue to seize opportunities such as credit bonds for 3-5 years.Under the background of global energy structure transformation, methanol-based ethanol-hydrogen electric vehicle technology has gradually emerged in recent years, which not only further enriches the technical route of vehicle electrification, but also provides new ideas for solving the problems of energy security and emission reduction in transportation in China. The reporter learned that at present, Liaoning, Shanxi, Tianjin and other places are actively promoting policies to accelerate the development of the alcohol-hydrogen electric vehicle industry, and some car companies represented by Geely are also stepping up their layout to compete for a new track in this industry. According to industry insiders, alcohol-hydrogen electric vehicles have many advantages and there is huge room for future development. (Economic Information Daily)CITIC Securities: Scientific and Technological Progress+Policy Expectation The Internet sector is both offensive and defensive. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on December 9, 2024 pointed out that a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year, and consumption should be greatly boosted, investment efficiency should be improved, and domestic demand should be expanded in all directions. We believe that the valuation of the Internet sector has reflected the current conservative expectations, and the strong shareholder returns provide sufficient margin of safety, while the performance of the sector is expected to benefit significantly from the macro improvement, which will bring about a double-click on performance and valuation, with emphasis on recommending pro-cyclical sectors, such as e-commerce, local life, travel, freight, online recruitment, real estate service platforms, etc. Content-based companies focus on the pace of quality content supply and valuation improvement. In the long run, Internet companies lead domestic technological innovation, and artificial intelligence and autonomous driving are expected to contribute to the increase. We suggest focusing on leading Internet companies with pro-cyclical, stable competitive advantage, low valuation and stable shareholder returns.